Stormglass Report

A storm glass is a 19th century weather instrument. Sealed crystals that form beautiful, complex patterns in response to atmospheric conditions. For decades, people believed it could predict storms.

It couldn't. But the quest to read it taught people to look more carefully at the sky.

This is my storm glass — a public record of trying to make sense of complex systems: geopolitics, macroeconomics, technology, and the forces that shape markets and power. I put money behind my conclusions, not because I'm a trader, but because skin in the game is the only reliable way to keep yourself intellectually honest. It's easy to have opinions. It's harder when you have to bet on them.

Some of what I see will be signal. Much of it will be noise. The only way to find out which is which is to write it down, commit to a view, and wait.